Roth IRA Conversion in 2010 - How to Make This Decision

No doubt soon you will be flooded with articlesterm of the IRA and the opportunity cost of the
and "advisor speak" in the media about theconversion tax can be disregarded only if the IRA
benefits of converting all or part of you traditionalis spent down during your life time. If the IRA is
IRA to a Roth IRA in 2010 when the incomeever inherited complete equalization or tax
restrictions are removed. My guess is most ofneutralization if you prefer, is achieved only when
the opinions you hear will be in the favor of Roth.the account, whichever one you choose, is fully
Let me break it down to the key decision points:depleted. If it occurs during the beneficiary's lives,
Better dead than alive?they also must have the same exact combined
This is a multi-generational planning decision largelytax rate that was incurred at the time of the
due to the fact that the required minimumconversion and you still have to factor in the
distribution (RMD) factors for a traditional IRAopportunity cost of the conversion tax during
extend well past the age of 100. What does thisyour life.
mean? The traditional IRA cannot be spent downPermanent timing differences due to variable tax
during the owner's life time if all they do is adhererates:
to the RMD rates. Even if the account does notIf the conversion puts you at a marginal tax rate
earn a return after starting RMDs the accountthat is higher than normal for you, and your
value becomes zero at around age 120. This istaxable retirement income requirements based on
why I recommend that if you have a substantialtoday's tax rates reverts back to your normal
tax deferral balance built up in your traditional IRArate, and your beneficiaries are projected to have
do not convert it to an immediate tax liability byan income tax rate that is equal to or less than
going Roth. As I stated in my previous article,your normal rate, then a conversion will result in a
"Roth IRA Conversion - Don't Do It", thepermanent negative or unfavorable tax timing
opportunity cost, or the potential investmentdifference until the IRA is terminated. In other
returns foregone from paying the conversion tax,words, the timing difference will not reverse with
are not likely to be offset during the owner's lifetime and staying with the traditional IRA would be
time by the taxes avoided during the incomepreferred in this circumstance because the
phase of the IRA. They will be fully realized onlyopportunity cost resulting from the lump sum tax
when the IRA is terminated, usually well past thepayment cannot be fully recovered during the
death of the original owner. Therefore, not onlyowner's life time without taking on considerable
do you need to project what your future incomeinvestment risk.
tax rates could be, but those for the beneficiariesIf your future taxable retirement income is
as well to determine if the conversion is a goodexpected to be considerably more than the
financial decision.income you make today, based on today's
Speculation about future higher income tax rates:income tax rates you might be encouraged to
No one knows what income taxes will be beyondcomplete a full conversion in 2010. But, there is still
what they are today. A strong case can be madethe opportunity cost of the conversion tax in
for assuming income tax rates for the highestyour life time and the tax timing benefit may not
income tiers will rise, while not so for the middlebe fully realized until it flows through to your
and lower income tiers. Then you have tobeneficiary, and only if they are in the same or
consider how close you are to needing fundshigher tax bracket.
from the IRA. You may be able to project youLet me repeat the point I made in the beginning
tax rate with a high degree of confidence for theof the article. The timing differences whether
very near term. But, the intermediate and longneutral or permanent are only realized at the end
term would be a wild guess. Those who areof the IRA, after it has been fully spent - either
nearing retirement and expect to stay in theby you or your beneficiaries.
highest income tax bracket may want to analyzeConclusion
if they will recover the conversion cost duringAs simple as the idea of "tax free" seems to
their life time before making this decision.you, it is extremely more complicated if you have
When it makes no difference:already accumulated deferred tax liabilities. If you
The decision point is will the account be depletedare contemplating the conversion, make sure you
during the owner's life or the lives of theconsult with a qualified advisor who can thoroughly
beneficiaries? There is no permanent taxevaluate the financial and investment
difference when the combined income tax ratesconsequences during your life and the life of your
(federal, state and local) incurred at the time ofbeneficiaries.
conversion remains the same throughout the